[ Special series on Colorectal Cancer ]
doi: 10.1186/s40880-016-0118-y
Colorectal cancer mortality trends in Serbia during 1991–2010: an age-period-cohort analysis and a joinpoint regression analysis
Milena Ilic and Irena Ilic
Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Kragujevac
[Abstract]
Background
For both men and women worldwide, colorectal cancer is among the leading causes of cancer-related death. This study aimed to assess the mortality trends of colorectal cancer in Serbia between 1991 and 2010, prior to the introduction of population-based screening.
Methods
Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate average annual percent change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). Furthermore, age-period-cohort analysis was performed to examine the effects of birth cohort and calendar period on the observed temporal trends.
Results
We observed a significantly increased trend in colorectal cancer mortality in Serbia during the study period (AAPC = 1.6%, 95% CI 1.3%–1.8%). Colorectal cancer showed an increased mortality trend in both men (AAPC = 2.0%, 95% CI 1.7%–2.2%) and women (AAPC = 1.0%, 95% CI 0.6%–1.4%). The temporal trend of colorectal cancer mortality was significantly affected by birth cohort (P < 0.05), whereas the study period did not significantly affect the trend (P = 0.072). Colorectal cancer mortality increased for the first several birth cohorts in Serbia (from 1916 to 1955), followed by downward flexion for people born after the 1960s. According to comparability test, overall mortality trends for colon cancer and rectal and anal cancer were not parallel (the final selected model rejected parallelism, P < 0.05).
Conclusions
We found that colorectal cancer mortality in Serbia increased considerably over the past two decades. Mortality increased particularly in men, but the trends were different according to age group and subsite. In Serbia, interventions to reduce colorectal cancer burden, especially the implementation of a national screening program, as well as treatment improvements and measures to encourage the adoption of a healthy lifestyle, are needed.
Background
For both men and women worldwide, colorectal cancer is among the leading causes of cancer-related death. This study aimed to assess the mortality trends of colorectal cancer in Serbia between 1991 and 2010, prior to the introduction of population-based screening.
Methods
Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate average annual percent change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). Furthermore, age-period-cohort analysis was performed to examine the effects of birth cohort and calendar period on the observed temporal trends.
Results
We observed a significantly increased trend in colorectal cancer mortality in Serbia during the study period (AAPC = 1.6%, 95% CI 1.3%–1.8%). Colorectal cancer showed an increased mortality trend in both men (AAPC = 2.0%, 95% CI 1.7%–2.2%) and women (AAPC = 1.0%, 95% CI 0.6%–1.4%). The temporal trend of colorectal cancer mortality was significantly affected by birth cohort (P < 0.05), whereas the study period did not significantly affect the trend (P = 0.072). Colorectal cancer mortality increased for the first several birth cohorts in Serbia (from 1916 to 1955), followed by downward flexion for people born after the 1960s. According to comparability test, overall mortality trends for colon cancer and rectal and anal cancer were not parallel (the final selected model rejected parallelism, P < 0.05).
Conclusions
We found that colorectal cancer mortality in Serbia increased considerably over the past two decades. Mortality increased particularly in men, but the trends were different according to age group and subsite. In Serbia, interventions to reduce colorectal cancer burden, especially the implementation of a national screening program, as well as treatment improvements and measures to encourage the adoption of a healthy lifestyle, are needed.
Chinese Journal of Cancer 2016, Volume: 35, Issue 10
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Milena Ilic and Irena Ilic. Colorectal cancer mortality trends in Serbia during 1991–2010: an age-period-cohort analysis and a joinpoint regression analysis. Chin J Cancer. 2016, 35:55. doi:10.1186/s40880-016-0118-y
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[ Html full-text / Citation export] (BioMed Central)
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[ More articles of the special series on Colorectal Cancer ]
Cite this article
Milena Ilic and Irena Ilic. Colorectal cancer mortality trends in Serbia during 1991–2010: an age-period-cohort analysis and a joinpoint regression analysis. Chin J Cancer. 2016, 35:55. doi:10.1186/s40880-016-0118-y
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